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- All-In Podcast
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A conversation between
Open Source Wins, AGI Is Here, and Scorsese’s AI Toolkit with CEOs of Cerebras & Black Forest Labs
§02
Snippets
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What we're talking about now are data centers that are in the next several years going to use more power than the previous 50 years on Earth took. We're talking about individual buildings the size of football fields that have more power coming into them than midsize cities. And they're being built across the US. They're being built in Canada. They're being built throughout the Nordics. are being built here in Paris and throughout France, in Europe, in the Middle East in nations that sort of weren't front and center in anybody's mind previously. You know, Kazakhstan, Tajjikstan are building out Georgia building out data centers of size.
This paints a concrete picture of the unprecedented physical and energy scale of the current AI infrastructure buildout, grounding abstract hype in stark material reality.
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The irony is unlike many sort of exciting times in technology. They're trying to capture yesterday's demand, right? The demand is way outstripping our ability to build data centers and to fill them with hardware. We have a $25 billion backlog, and we are not alone in that — OpenAI, Anthropic, Google wants more data centers, Microsoft wants more data centers, AWS wants more data centers. All of these players are not chasing sort of if you build it, they will come. They're chasing the demand is booked.
A $25 billion backlog signals that AI compute demand is not speculative but already contracted, which is a fundamentally different market dynamic than previous tech booms.
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We have a term for token maxing. And there's a great debate. Is this actually creating value? I liken this to when we first started with AWS and it was so good to get around your own IT organization that you told every engineer, yeah, go ahead, put on your credit card and sign up. And a lot of it was really useful and some of it was like, God, I wish we didn't do that. But it doesn't mean that the net value isn't enormous. It means some of it is going to go nowhere.
The AWS analogy reframes current AI over-consumption not as waste but as a predictable early-adoption pattern that eventually matures into disciplined, high-value use.
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We're really seeing a certain type of person emerge who knows how to deploy this technology. Systems thinking — which developers kind of have innately, CEOs tend to be great strategists and understand systems. But the intelligence is getting so much better every step along the way that I'm watching individuals typically startup founders but also venture capitalists and associates who work at my venture firm. They start playing with the tool and then the tool starts playing with them. They start to go, 'Oh, I haven't clearly defined what my goal is. I don't understand what a system is. I don't understand — I've never heard about making a requirements document.' And the software's like, 'Do you have a requirements document? What's your goal?' The AI starts telling people, 'You're token maxing and you need to get a little more focused here.'
This identifies a new professional archetype — the systems-thinking AI operator — and reveals how AI is forcing even non-technical users to develop rigorous problem-structuring skills.
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At first, prompting was like that, right? You modified your prompt a little bit and it changed the answer dramatically. And increasingly it's understanding what your intent was. And if you have a chance to play with Fable or 56 from OpenAI, increasingly what you don't have to get the prompt just right. You don't have to be a prompt whisperer. Instead, you ask it and it says, 'Well, here are some things and by the way, maybe you wanted the chart to go two ways. You wanted a line and a bar.' And it's like, 'Well, that's exactly what I wanted. I didn't ask for it, but that is better.' And so it's understanding intent and that's a huge leap which if we were sitting here two years ago, the idea — we would never have been able to predict in a short 24 months that it would go from being a great summarizer researcher of web results to actually understanding your intent and then providing a solution and abstracting it all from you.
The shift from prompt-literal to intent-aware AI represents a qualitative leap in human-computer interaction that makes the technology accessible to billions of non-technical users.
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Unlimited tokens, I believe, means unlimited reasoning. What does that mean? If you run these for 25 or 48 hours, you get amazing things now, and what if by using Cerebras we were 15 times faster and then you ran it for 24 hours, right? And you got weeks or months worth of thinking.
This reframes compute speed not just as efficiency but as a multiplier on the depth of reasoning available within a fixed time budget, with profound implications for scientific discovery.
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AGI — I think I suspect you'll agree with me that we've hit it. We just haven't exactly deployed it fully. We have artificial general intelligence now. It feels like when we're talking about these reasoning moments and the ability for it to be as smart as any human — by any definition we had 20 years ago we've hit it. I mean, you think about that — any period of time sort of 10, 15, 20, 30, 40, 50 years ago, any definition we would have previously put forward — we've blown past it. And so which goes back to our previous point of like, do we know the questions to ask — 20 years ago, science fiction authors had their say and we answered all their questions.
A sitting AI CEO declaring AGI has already arrived challenges the field's framing of superintelligence as future-tense and forces a reckoning with what benchmarks actually matter.
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Powerful recursive gains are exponential, right? You get better, you do it again. And if you continue to get gain, the slope of that curve is so steep. And that we're just beginning to see that now. You ask it a question, you learn from the results, you ask it to do it again, the results get better and more information is added. Your answer gets better. You ask it to do again, it covers more material. And these sort of loops are producing sort of not a little bit better answers but vastly better answers. And that is enormously powerful because we don't quite know where it ends.
The recursive self-improvement loop is the core mechanism behind fears of an intelligence explosion, and hearing a chip CEO describe witnessing it empirically makes the theoretical concrete.
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The problem with human learning is it often moves at the pace of a generation. And like elephants and other large mammals, we don't have generations but every 15 or 20 years. And if you want to move really quickly across generations, you want them happening more like Drosophili, like fruitfly. You want two a day. Right. Then you see that in genetics, that's why we study them in genetics because learning encoded in the DNA, you can study over thousands of generations. And I think that what we're getting is that equivalent in AI. We're getting sort of learning so quickly over the equivalent of thousands of generations.
The Drosophila analogy elegantly captures why AI progress feels qualitatively different from human institutional learning — it's compressing generational timescales into months.
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We have a shot with this technology so not our children nor anyone they know dies of cancer. There will be some dislocation in the economy. Sure. There was dislocation when cars came and it was a bad deal to be a guy who shed horses, right? Or built carriages. But you got to also against that, you know, make your tee of the cons and the pros. There's a shot that our children, none of them nor their people they love will die cancer. And that's one thing that we can work on with this technology. Unlimited energy, unlimited calories, unlimited knowledge, unlimited education, unlimited housing.
Grounding AI's upside in the elimination of cancer and scarcity reframes the public debate from job displacement fears to civilizational abundance potential.
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We invented an algorithm called latent diffusion which is basically like the fundamental algorithm behind all of like generative models that are being deployed for image generation, video generation, even like physical AI now. It basically makes use of this principle that you can compress natural data such as images, such as video, such as audio into a much more like efficient representation and then train a transformer model on that.
Understanding that latent diffusion is the shared foundation beneath image, video, audio, and physical AI models reveals how a single algorithmic insight is powering an entire generation of AI products.
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I think it's important and that's at least like the view that we have is that these AI models, they are a medium, right? We don't want to set like any way of how they are supposed to be used. We don't want to tell anyone especially not someone like Martin Scorsese how is he supposed to use these models. He is one of the greatest filmmakers ever. It was insane sitting in the same room with him multiple times and actually him seeing like exploring our models as one of the like core researchers behind it was like just an insane feeling. I think it was really this idea of like he has clearly a vision in his head of like a scene or a scenery where like maybe a new movie will be shot and he's trying to explore that — getting the mental picture of something out of your head and communicating it in a visual way by making these images is something that just makes it easier to communicate and convey like an idea of like what is actually in your head.
Framing AI image generation as a new communication medium rather than a replacement tool reorients the creative-AI debate around augmentation of human vision rather than automation of craft.
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When I look at multimodal generative models as a whole, I think what really excites me is you can use the same kind of AI model to make a movie and deploy that as a brain on a robot. And I think this is so interesting. The technology is so powerful and so versatile — all the talk around world models, world action models — all of that, it's basically all the same and I think that's what's making it so interesting and what I find like most exciting.
The convergence of video generation and robotic action prediction into a single model architecture suggests the path to general-purpose physical AI may already be underway.
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it is like it's becoming much faster. It's becoming more interactive. I can imagine like a whole bunch of like very interesting interactive content creation tools that you could host on Disney Plus Plus or elsewhere.
The shift toward real-time, interactive AI-generated content signals a fundamental change in how entertainment platforms could be structured.
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I think the most interesting thing I've seen in this regard is uh fan films, right? So there's a category before generative AI fanfiction. People would write their own Star Wars story. Then there came fan films where people would dress up as Jedi Knights and record their own films.
Tracing the evolution from fan fiction to fan films frames AI-generated content as the next natural step in participatory fan culture.
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George Lucas said, 'As long as you're not doing it commercially, you're not selling it, I give you permission to go make Jedi movies.' And they even released how to, you know, how-tos on how to make a lightsaber or, you know, sound files of like how to make the lightsaber sound.
George Lucas's permissive non-commercial fan-film policy offers a historical precedent for how IP owners might structure AI content licensing.
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Now, people are taking the stories that haven't been told from the Star Wars universe and they're recreating them using AI. And for the fans, they're becoming quite popular on YouTube. Uh Star Wars Stories Untold is, I think, the biggest one. It's getting millions of views per video already.
Millions of views on AI-generated fan content validates real audience demand and signals that the market for IP-licensed AI storytelling is already forming.
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I think that's really the future is letting the customer base pay a licensing fee or pay a fee, uh maybe rent software or maybe based on the output and let them be creative with the characters, let them make their own stories, and you could be in a unique position to empower that.
Proposing output-based or software-rental licensing models for AI fan content points toward genuinely novel IP monetization structures that don't yet exist.
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if you find like a model that works for like the um IP owners uh but then also can enable like these super like creative customization use cases I think that's great. Yeah. I mean like like I mean like for myself like I when I read a book or whatever like watched the movie I had like so many like ideas how it could be done differently or this could have happened right this is like so nice that you can actually enable people to visualize these ideas.
The guest grounds the abstract IP licensing debate in a deeply human creative impulse — the desire every audience member has to reimagine the stories they love.
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we raised a bunch of money. Uh we just crossed 100 people. We're hiring in Germany and in San Francisco.
A rapidly growing, dual-geography team signals Black Forest Labs is scaling internationally rather than concentrating solely in Silicon Valley, reflecting the global nature of AI talent.
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Yeah. Um on the one hand, we're always looking for researchers who have experience in large scale model training. Um experience in diffusion model training, flow matching training. We're looking for engineers who want to be working with the customers to you know develop these like customized um physical AI solutions.
The hiring priorities of a frontier AI lab reveal which technical capabilities — flow matching, physical AI — are genuinely scarce and strategically critical right now.
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We are looking for engineers who have experience in just like large scale compute infra managing that um and making sure that the training runs runs smoothly that we maximize our MFU and all that.
Mentioning MFU (Model FLOP Utilization) as a hiring criterion shows how infrastructure efficiency has become a first-class competitive concern for AI labs.
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it seems like the corporates really want to have some additional level of control, but they also need the frontier models or your proprietary ones for some of those refined features. So, I think you have a very bright future.
This tension — enterprises wanting control but needing frontier capabilities — defines the core strategic opportunity for open-source-plus-proprietary hybrid AI companies.
§03
Synthesis
Open Source Prevails, AGI Has Arrived, and AI Becomes Creative Infrastructure
The age of massive computing buildout has arrived, and with it comes a fundamental shift in how artificial intelligence develops—toward reasoning, open-source dominance, and creative tools that extend human capability rather than replace it. Two CEOs steering different but complementary parts of this infrastructure offer clarity on where the technology stands and where it's headed.
The Unsustainable Demand Explosion
Cerebras CEO Andrew Feldman describes a buildout without precedent in modern times. Data centers the size of football fields are rising across the United States, Canada, the Nordic countries, France, and unexpected places like Kazakhstan and Georgia. These facilities consume power at scales that dwarf entire cities. The demand is not speculative—it's booked. Cerebras carries a $25 billion backlog, matching the appetite of OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Microsoft, and AWS combined. These companies order chips before manufacturing even completes, not betting on future demand but chasing demand that already exists.
This velocity creates an unusual dynamic. Companies are not building speculatively ("if you build it, they will come"). They're racing to keep customers from leaving. The constraint isn't demand; it's supply of chips and infrastructure. Feldman's framing is stark: the scale of capital, time, and human intelligence mobilized rivals historical projects like the Great Wall of China or the pyramids—though the closest analogue may be wartime industrial mobilization.
Reasoning Is the Inflection Point
Both guests point to reasoning as the technology that justifies the expenditure. Current models no longer merely predict the next word or summarize text. They think through problems, debate themselves internally, and offer solutions the user didn't ask for because they understood the intent better than the prompt expressed it.
Calacanis describes using a reasoning model with unlimited token capacity to identify global trends. The AI didn't just search—it reasoned about where trends emerge, debating between Hacker News, Reddit, social media, and Instagram before synthesizing findings. This is not retrieval; it's cognition.
Feldman notes that reasoning is computationally expensive. It consumes vast internal tokens. But that expense justifies Cerebras's speed advantage. Fast inference makes expensive reasoning tractable. A machine 15 times faster can run a model for 24 hours and achieve what slower systems need weeks or months to compute.
"Reasoning consumes a huge amount of tokens internally. Fast compute makes this work fast and tractable instead of taking a huge amount of time to get a good answer."
This creates a new economy: token maxing—using models without constraint to explore a problem space exhaustively. Early experiments showed waste, yes. Teams spun up compute like engineers with unlimited cloud credits used to spin up servers. But sophistication emerged. Companies learned that open-source models handle routine tasks (the "minivan" use case), while frontier models tackle novel problems. The cutting-and-pasting economy—moving spreadsheet cells between systems—doesn't need gold-medal mathematics. It needs rock-solid open-source infrastructure.
Open Source Wins, Sovereignty Reigns
The conversation pivots decisively toward open-source models. Calacanis noticed that Llama and other open-source alternatives matched closed-source performance for many tasks while consuming far fewer tokens. The gap is closing rapidly. This year, the difference in capability compressed noticeably.
Feldman embraces this. Cerebras runs Qwen models, Llama, GLM (from Alibaba), proprietary models from partners like Galaxos Smith Klein, and closed-source models from OpenAI and Anthropic. The plurality of options is deliberate. Sovereignty—the ability to control one's own intelligence infrastructure—has become a trend, not a niche concern. Regulated industries (finance, healthcare) need on-premise solutions. Nations want domestic models. Companies refuse dependency on a single vendor, a lesson learned from Intel's stranglehold over x86 and Nvidia's grip on AI accelerators.
Feldman argues that companies don't need the fastest chip—they need not to be entirely dependent on other people's chips. Open-source models enable this. The U.S. needs more domestic open-source options, he argues, giving companies and governments real alternatives to closed ecosystems.
The AGI Inflection Is Already Here
Both speakers are direct: by any definition set forward 20 or 30 years ago, artificial general intelligence has arrived. The Turing test—passed. Reasoning across domains—done. Understanding intent and generating novel solutions—present. The tests we set have been exceeded.
"By any definition we would have previously put forward 20, 30, 40, 50 years ago, we've blown past it."
This reframes the conversation. The question isn't whether AGI arrives—it's already here. The question is what we do with it. Feldman points to recursive learning loops: you ask the model a question, learn from results, ask again with better context, get vastly better answers. These loops compound exponentially. The slope of improvement is steep enough that no one knows where it ends. When do we run out of problems to solve? Or do the problems transition from intellectual to organizational—how do we mobilize people to implement what AI suggests?
Generative Models as Creative Medium
Black Forest Labs CEO Robin Rombach approaches the technology differently. His company develops foundational models for image and video generation, built on latent diffusion—an algorithm that compresses natural data into efficient representations, then trains transformers on that compressed space. JPEG, MP3, and neural generation work on the same principle.
Rombach's vision extends further: multimodal models that generate images, video, audio, and predict actions—the same model deployed on a robot in the real world. To make a video is to understand the world. To predict a robot's next action requires identical visual and physical intuition.
His partnership with Martin Scorsese exemplifies the human-in-the-loop paradigm. Scorsese used Rombach's tools not to generate finished scenes but to visualize ideas. He described a village in Eastern Europe, iterated on outputs, and clarified his vision in visual form—something language, however precise, cannot convey with equal richness. The technology is a medium, not an automation.
The Practical Boundaries
Rombach is candid: full-movie generation from a single prompt is not the goal. The interesting use cases combine human iteration with AI generation. Storyboarding, which Ridley Scott and Spielberg practiced by hand, becomes collaborative. A startup spends weeks with a director refining a 90-second launch video, a task that once cost $250,000 and months of production.
High-end film production—like Gal Gadot's Bitcoin film shot on a sound stage with AI-generated backgrounds—is already happening. The soundstage replaced green screens and $150 million in set construction. That film would not have been green-lit without the cost reduction. Yet Rombach notes the technology is on a trajectory. Multi-minute high-resolution video generation is new. The improvements will unlock use cases currently impossible.
On IP and licensing, his approach mirrors the open-source philosophy: work with content holders to develop models jointly, control what proprietary models can generate in public tools, and empower creators. Fan films using Star Wars characters—which George Lucas permitted non-commercially—now have a new medium. The underlying insight is that generative AI's value lies not in copying existing content but in enabling creative remixing the original creator never produced.
Robotics and World Models Converge
The final thread ties vision models to embodied AI. The same architecture that generates video must understand physics, object interactions, and causality. A robot pouring a glass requires the model to perceive the glass, the liquid, the hand, and predict the consequences of each action.
Currently, models require fine-tuning on robot-specific data—a few hours of adjustment per task. The research goal is in-context learning: prompt a robot with visual and linguistic intent, and it adapts. This is not yet realized, but the trajectory is clear. A single large model trained on internet-scale video can, with minimal task-specific tuning, control real hardware.
The Governance Question
One notable discussion centers on the U.S. government's request to pause Frontier AI release and conduct red-teaming. Feldman neither opposes nor endorses the move outright. His framing is deliberate: governments ask for testing before releasing powerful pharmaceuticals. Red-teaming a model creative enough to pose security risks is not unreasonable. Infrastructure hardening before release—patching holes the model identifies—is prudent.
The politicization of the issue obscures the substance. Both sides will make smart and dumb decisions. The rank-and-file people in government are trying hard. The lesson is not to dismiss caution or celebrate speed uncritically, but to separate technical risk from partisan noise.
Abundance Is the Ledger Item
Feldman's closing argument frames the technology's impact: no one dies of cancer. That is one item on the ledger. Unlimited energy, food, education, and housing follow. We have known how to tutor children individually for thousands of years (Socrates, Aristotle), yet we teach in factories to a mid-level. AI tutors that adapt to each child's learning style are within reach. Add these to the ledger. Dislocation will occur—horse breeders and carriage makers suffered when cars arrived. But the goods side outweighs the bads, not because problems don't exist but because the creation of abundance dwarfs the disruption.
The convergence is striking: infrastructure designed by Feldman's company powers the reasoning models that Rombach's tools visualize. Both companies distribute their work—infrastructure and models—across open and proprietary offerings. Both bet that humanity's most pressing problems—disease, ignorance, poverty, inefficiency—are more tractable with AI than without it. And both acknowledge that this is only the beginning.
§04
Fan-out
Questions raised
- 01 What are the environmental and geopolitical consequences of this global race to build AI data centers?
- 02 What happens to the companies and economies that fail to secure AI compute capacity in this window?
- 03 How should enterprises govern AI token consumption before internal ROI frameworks are established?
- 04 What educational or training frameworks best develop systems thinking for AI-era professionals?
- 05 If AI models can infer intent, how does this change the value of prompt engineering as a skill?
- 06 What classes of problems become tractable when AI can run extended reasoning chains for days rather than seconds?
- 07 If we've surpassed every historical definition of AGI, why do the goalposts keep moving, and who decides the new ones?
- 08 Is there a natural ceiling to recursive reasoning gains, or do they compound indefinitely with more compute?
- 09 What human institutions — education, governance, science — are most at risk from being unable to keep pace with AI's generational compression?
- 10 What specific AI-driven research pathways are most credibly on track to defeat cancer within a generation?
- 11 What are the limits of latent diffusion as a unified framework, and what might supersede it?
- 12 How does treating AI as a 'medium' (like film or photography) change the intellectual property and authorship frameworks we apply to it?
- 13 What data and compute bottlenecks remain before a single multimodal model can reliably control robots across diverse real-world environments?
- 14 What would a truly interactive, AI-powered streaming platform look like, and how would it differ from today's Netflix or Disney+?
- 15 Which incumbent streaming platform is best positioned to adopt generative AI content creation tools first?
- 16 How does the history of fan creativity help us anticipate both the opportunities and legal conflicts that AI-generated fan content will produce?
- 17 Could a 'Lucas model' for AI-generated fan content become an industry standard, and what would its enforcement look like?
- 18 At what view-count or revenue threshold does AI-generated fan content become a legal or commercial threat that studios can no longer ignore?
- 19 What are the practical challenges of implementing usage-based or output-based licensing for AI-generated content at scale?
- 20 Which existing industry — music sampling, stock footage, or software SaaS — offers the best template for AI content licensing?
- 21 How does enabling audiences to 'finish' or reimagine stories change the relationship between creators and consumers?
- 22 Does widespread AI-powered fan reimagining enrich a franchise's cultural value or dilute the original creator's vision?
- 23 What are the advantages and challenges of splitting an AI research company's talent base between Europe and San Francisco?
- 24 Does maintaining a European base give Black Forest Labs any regulatory or talent-pool advantages over purely US-based competitors?
- 25 Why is expertise in flow matching becoming a key differentiator for frontier image and video generation labs?
- 26 How much competitive advantage can a lab gain purely through better MFU, independent of model architecture choices?
- 27 How do AI companies optimally structure a hybrid open-source and proprietary offering to satisfy enterprise control requirements without giving away their competitive moat?
- 28 As open-source models rapidly approach frontier quality, how long can proprietary labs maintain a meaningful feature gap?
Concepts to learn
- 01 Power Usage Effectiveness (PUE)
- 02 Backlog as a leading indicator
- 03 Token economics
- 04 Requirements engineering
- 05 Intent inference
- 06 Test-time compute scaling
- 07 Turing Test
- 08 Intelligence explosion
- 09 Drosophila melanogaster as a model organism
- 10 AI drug discovery
- 11 Latent space
- 12 Medium theory
- 13 World models
- 14 Interactive narrative
- 15 Participatory culture
- 16 Non-commercial licensing
- 17 User-generated content economy
- 18 Output-based licensing
- 19 Canon vs. fanon
- 20 AI talent geography
- 21 Flow matching
- 22 Physical AI
- 23 Model FLOP Utilization (MFU)
- 24 Large-scale training infrastructure
- 25 Open-core business model
References invoked
- 01 International Energy Agency (IEA) reports on data center energy consumption
- 02 Jensen Huang / Nvidia earnings calls on compute demand
- 03 AWS cloud adoption curve studies from the early 2010s
- 04 Donella Meadows, 'Thinking in Systems'
- 05 OpenAI o-series reasoning models (o1, o3)
- 06 DeepMind AlphaProof / OpenAI o1 technical reports on extended reasoning
- 07 Nick Bostrom, 'Superintelligence'; Shane Legg's original AGI definition at DeepMind
- 08 I.J. Good, 'Speculations Concerning the First Ultraintelligent Machine' (1965)
- 09 Thomas Kuhn, 'The Structure of Scientific Revolutions' — on paradigm shifts across generations
- 10 DeepMind AlphaFold; Isomorphic Labs on AI-accelerated drug discovery
- 11 Rombach et al., 'High-Resolution Image Synthesis with Latent Diffusion Models' (2022) — the original LDM paper
- 12 Marshall McLuhan, 'Understanding Media: The Extensions of Man'
- 13 Yann LeCun's Joint Embedding Predictive Architecture (JEPA) as an alternative world model approach
- 14 Henry Jenkins — 'Textual Poachers' and 'Convergence Culture'
- 15 George Lucas / Lucasfilm Fan Film Awards — the official program that formalized non-commercial fan film permissions
- 16 Star Wars Stories Untold — YouTube channel producing AI-generated Star Wars fan films
Mine your own.
Lode is a workbench, not a feed. Paste a YouTube URL. The model proposes a transcript, a set of quote-grounded snippets, a synthesis essay, and the fan-out. You decide what stays.